Axis of Upheaval? A DPRK Deployment in Ukraine
How will the North Korean involvement in Ukraine change the face of the war, and how will the Trump administration approach this new geopolitical challenge?
DPRK Deployment in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked observers around the globe. Over the past two years, more countries have become involved in this geopolitical conflict, unprecedented in the 21st century. NATO has supported Ukraine with millions of dollars and weapons while China provided dual-use goods, from machine tools to microchips, highly coveted by Russian manufacturers.
On Oct. 23, 2024, the U.S. government announced an unprecedented demonstration of international support for Russia, confirming that North Korea sent 3000 troops to Russia to fight on Russia’s behalf in Ukraine. This act was considered a serious escalation as Pyongyang expanded its close tie with Moscow during wartime.
“Sending troops is the biggest symbol of an alliance commitment that one country can make to another.” Georgetown Professor Victor Cha told PBS News on Oct 23, “Based on this decision, we can see that North Korea is all in for supporting Russia in the war.”
In spite of this major show of support, it is a new step even in the military relationship between Russia and the DPRK. After sending the troops to Russia, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might expect a higher return from Vladimir Putin.
The potential payback could take the form of Russian assistance with North Korea’s ICBM missiles and nuclear submarine projects, given Moscow’s long standing nuclear research programs. Combat experience for North Korean soldiers may also yield benefits. The North Korean military hasn’t fought a war in over 75 years. Their involvement in Ukraine could help their armed forces adapt to the modern character of warfare, a potentially worrying prospect to their uneasy neighbor, South Korea.
North Korea’s decision complicated an already precarious situation in Ukraine and likely affected U.S. foreign policy calculations. President Biden has always expressed determination to defend Ukraine through direct economic aid and indirect cooperation.
However, President-elect Trump’s approach is very different from Biden’s. He has expressed a more transactional approach in foreign policy, generally putting less faith in alliances. In 2024, during the presidential campaign, Trump stated that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours. But he has not yet substantiated this claim with a plan, prompting numerous questions: how will he achieve that goal? What is his grand strategy in the Ukraine conflict?
Georgetown Professor Matthew Kroenig said of Trump’s aspirations:
“President-elect Trump frequently used the term peace through strength in his campaign when it comes to defense and security policies. His promise of ending the Ukraine war in 24 hours is more of a typical Trump bombast. But I do think that he means that he would end the war quickly.”
The current Biden administration still lacks a clear strategy for defending Ukraine. Despite sending billions of dollars in aid and military equipment, including Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) the U.S. failed to lay out a detailed framework or identify specific end-state objectives in the conflict.
Whether the incoming administration will produce pragmatic policies to tackle the war in Ukraine remains in question. Several of Trump’s key advisors indulge in the magical realism of thinking that the U.S. can sacrifice its interests in Europe while simultaneously shoring deterrence against Chinese predation in East Asia. In other words, Ukraine's support might be sacrificed as the pivot to Asia takes priority. Most NATO allies viewed a Trump victory with dread, believing that it would be the final nail in the coffin of America’s traditional global leadership. We don’t know what this will mean for Ukraine and the US’s global standing, but it will be big.
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